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Jurnal Ekonomi Teknologi & Bisnis (JETBIS)
Volume 2, Number 3 Maret 2023
p-ISSN 2964-903X; e-ISSN 2962-9330
THE EFFECT OF ROA AND ROE ON THE PROFIT GROWTH OF GOVERNMENT
BANKS WITH CREDIT GROWTH AS AN INTERVENING VARIABLE
Mei Hotma Mariati Munte
1
, Jadongan Sijabat
2
Economic Faculty, Nommensen HKBP University, Medan, Indonesia
Email : meihotmamariati_munte@yahoo.co.id, jadongansijabat@gmail.com
ARTICLE INFO:
Accepted:
March 10, 2023
Revised:
March 26, 2023
Approved:
March 29, 2023
ABSTRACT
Company performance information reflected in profit information in the
comprehensive income statement is important information seen by investors in
making decisions regarding investment and credit, and also information for
evaluating management's performance in managing the company. The
company's good profit growth reflects that the company's performance is also
good. In other words, profit is a measure of a company's performance, so the
higher the profit it achieves, the better its performance. This study aims to test
and analyze the effect of ROA on profit growth, the effect of ROA on profit
growth with credit growth as an intervening variable, the effect of ROE on profit
growth, ROE on profit growth with credit growth as an intervening variable, the
influence of ROA and ROE on profit growth and the effect of ROA and ROE on
profit growth with credit growth as an intervening variable. Based on the test
results, the value of the ROA coefficient is -12.031, with a significance level of
0.153. So it can be stated that the hypothesis (Ha1) states that the ROA ratio
does not influence credit growth in government banks is acceptable. The results
of hypothesis testing (Ha2) in which the value of the ROA coefficient is -3.415
with a significance level of 0.067 can then be stated that the hypothesis (Ha2)
stating that the ROA ratio does not affect profit growth with credit growth as an
intervening variable in government banks is acceptable. The results of testing
the ratio of ROE to profit growth show that the ratio of ROE with a coefficient
value of 1.854 with a significance level of 0.095 has a positive but insignificant
effect on profit growth. So it can be stated that the hypothesis (H03), which states
that the ROE Ratio affects profit growth in government banks, is acceptable. The
results of testing the ratio of ROE to profit growth with credit growth as an
intervening variable showed that the ROE ratio had a positive effect with a
coefficient value of 0.487 with a significance level of 0.045. So it can be stated
that the hypothesis (H04), which states that the ROE ratio affects profit growth
with credit growth as an intervening variable in government banks, is acceptable.
Furthermore, the test results on the effect of credit growth on profit growth
showed that the value of the credit growth coefficient of 1.093 and significant at
0.182 was a positive but insignificant effect. Thus the hypothesis (H05) of profit
growth influencing the credit growth of government banks is acceptable.
Keywords: ROA, ROE, Profit Growth, Credit Growth
INTRODUCTION
According to Law Number 7 of 1992 concerning Banking as amended by Law Number 10 of
the Year, a bank is a business entity that collects funds from the public in the form of deposits and
distributes them to the public to improve the living standards of many people. A government bank
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is a bank whose shares are partly or wholly owned by the Government. The following is a list of
government banks: Bank Mandiri (before 1998, it was Bank Dagang Negara, Bank Bumi Daya,
Bank Exim, Bank Pembangunan Indonesia), Bank Negara Indonesia, Bank Rakyat Indonesia, and
Bank Tabungan Negara (Arthesa & Handiman, 2006).
BRI's credit growth in 2013 reached 23.7 percent (year on year) to Rp 430.62 trillion from
Rp 348.23 trillion in 2012 after targeting 30% to be achieved in 2013 (Andhika & Sujana, 2016).
Throughout 2014, the distribution of red plate company loans in the banking sector of PT Bank
Rakyat Indonesia (Persero) Tbk (BBRI) increased by 13.88 percent to Rp570.79 trillion, when
compared to the achievement of Rp490.41 trillion in 2013 (Metrotvnews.com, January 26, 2015).
The credit growth target in 2014 is 20-22% (Houston & Brigham, 2010).
PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia (Persero) Tbk recorded total loans disbursed throughout 2015
amounting to Rp 558.4 trillion. This figure has increased by 13.9 percent compared to 2014, which
amounted to Rp 490.41 trillion with a growth target of 13 – 14%. The increase in lending occurred
in all lines of business. Loans in the micro segment, the company's main business, grew 16.8
percent to Rp 178.9 trillion. The number of customers increased to 7.8 million customers. "Credit
growth in the micro segment was partly driven by the Government of Indonesia's relaunch of the
People's Business Credit (KUR) in mid-August 2015."
PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia (Persero) Tbk, or BRI, recorded credit disbursements of Rp 635.3
trillion in 2016. This loan disbursement increased by 13.8 percent compared to the same period in
2015, reaching Rp 558.4 trillion. Previously, BRI was targeted to increase lending by up to 16%.
PT Bank Negara Indonesia (Persero) Tbk or BNI reported credit disbursements of Rp 441.3
trillion throughout 2017. This achievement grew 12.2 percent annually (yoy) compared to the
previous year's period, Rp 393.3 trillion. PT Bank Negara Indonesia (Persero) Tbk set a credit
growth target of 15-17% in 2017, which is lower than the realization of credit growth in 2016. This
is to anticipate the occurrence of bad debts (Ghozali, 2013).
Throughout 2016, it was recorded to grow 20.6% after previously being targeted to grow to
17%. BNI's credit growth rate exceeded the banking industry's average credit growth of 8.5% in
November 2016. Loans that BNI disbursed until the end of 2016 were recorded at Rp 393.28 trillion,
compared to the same period in 2015, Rp 326.11 trillion. BNI's credit growth in 2016 of 20.6%
surpassed the credit growth of the Indonesian banking industry in general.
PT Bank Negara Indonesia (Persero) Tbk (BNI) targeted 12-14% credit growth in 2015 and
recorded increased lending amidst less conducive economic conditions. The company's loan
disbursement grew 17.5 percent to Rp 326.1 trillion compared to 2014 Rp 277.6 trillion. BNI's
lending in 2015 grew in various segments: business banking (Corporations, SOEs, Medium and
Small Enterprises) and consumers (Situmorang et al., 2010).
PT Bank Negara Indonesia Persero Tbk (BNI) also recorded loan disbursements during
2014, reaching Rp277.6 trillion or growing 10.8 percent compared to 2013 of Rp250.6 trillion.
2014 was a tough year for the business sector because it was a political year followed by
pressure from the BI Rate and inflation. Nevertheless, BNI's credit disbursement continued
to grow even to double digits. This increase in credit shows BNI's function as an intermediary
institution is improving. PT Bank Negara Indonesia (BNI) Tbk targets credit growth of 14%-
15% this year, focusing more on the business segment or corporate loans, pegged at 15-18%,
while consumer loans are pegged at the level of 14%-16% (Hery & Si, 2015).
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Credit growth in 2013 was 24.9% up compared to 2012 to Rp 250.64 trillion, where BNI's
largest credit allocation was in corporate loans, which reached Rp 112.23 trillion or grew 55.4%
compared to 2012. This loan disbursement has exceeded the previously set growth target of 20-22%
(Harahap, 2007).
PT Bank Tabungan Negara (BBTN) Tbk recorded credit and financing growth in 2013 of Rp
100.46 trillion. This figure grew 23.4% compared to 2012, which amounted to Rp 81.41 trillion.
This growth in credit and financing is still above the average growth of the banking industry.
However, the credit growth of PT Bank Tabungan Negara, Tbk (BTN) in 2013 did not reach
the target set. Credit growth reached 23.41 percent, even though the target was 25 percent. Economic
conditions in 2013 were the reason. The loans disbursed by BTN in 2013 amounted to Rp 100.46
trillion. Meanwhile, in 2012 the position was still Rp 81.41 trillion.
PT Bank Tabungan Negara (BTN) targets credit growth of around 19 percent in 2014 or reach
Rp 125 trillion. The management of this red-plate bank projects that lending and financing in 2014
will also experience a slowdown. BTN's loan and financing target this year is only 17-18% reaching
Rp 109.4 trillion.
PT Bank Tabungan Negara Tbk (BTN) managed to realize financing of Rp 126.12 trillion
during the first semester of 2015, or grew by 18.33 percent from Rp 106.58 trillion in the same
period last year. This year BTN targets credit growth to be achieved around 21%-23%.
PT Bank Tabungan Negara Tbk (BTN) managed to realize financing of Rp 126.12 trillion
during the first semester of 2015, or grew by 18.33 percent from Rp 106.58 trillion in the same
period last year. This year BTN targets credit growth to be achieved around 21%-23%.
PT Bank Tabungan Negara (Persero) Tbk reported that lending throughout 2016 reached Rp
164.44 trillion. Previously, PT BTN targeted to be able to achieve credit growth of 21%. This figure
grew 18.34 percent annually (year on year / yoy) compared to Rp 138.95 trillion in 2015. The
company's lending performance in 2016 was above the national banking industry average. The
reason is that bank lending as of December 2016 only grew 7.8 percent (yoy).
PT Bank Tabungan Negara (Persero) Tbk (BTN) has disbursed loans throughout 2017
amounting to Rp198.99 trillion or experiencing growth of 21.01 percent compared to the previous
year of Rp164.44 trillion. The credit growth target to be achieved by PT BTN this year is 21-23%.
The credit growth was recorded to be above the national banking industry average. Based on data
from Bank Indonesia, as of December 2017, federal banking loans only grew 8.2 percent (yoy).
Bank Mandiri (IDX: BMRI) is a bank headquartered in Jakarta and is the largest bank in
Indonesia in terms of assets, loans, and deposits. The bank was established on October 2, 1998, as
part of the banking restructuring program the Government of Indonesia implemented. In July 1999,
four government-owned banks, namely Bank Bumi Daya (BBD), Bank Dagang Negara (BDN),
Bank Ekspor Impor Indonesia (Bank Exim), and Bank Pembangunan Indonesia (Bapindo), were
merged into Bank Mandiri.
PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk recorded credit growth until the end of last year (2017),
reaching 10.2% on an annual basis or year on year (yoy) to Rp 729.5 trillion. Meanwhile, the
company's total realization of productive loans increased by 7.2% annually or yoy. PT. Bank
Mandiri targets credit growth of 13-14% this year.
PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk recorded credit disbursements throughout 2016, reaching
Rp 662 trillion. This figure grew by 11.2 percent annually or year on year (yoy). PT Bank Mandiri
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(Persero) Tbk lowered its credit growth target in 2016 to 9-10 percent. Previously, the credit
growth rate was expected to reach 12-14 percent by the end of this year.
PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk reported loan disbursements of Rp 595.5 trillion in 2015. This
achievement increased by 12.3 percent compared to Rp 530 trillion in the same period the previous
year.
Bank Mandiri projects credit growth in 2014 to be slower than this year. Mandiri estimates
that in 2014, credit growth will be in the range of 17-18 percent. PT Bank Mandiri Tbk disbursed
loans of Rp 530 trillion throughout 2014, or grew 12.2 percent compared to the previous year's gains.
Credit growth slowed compared to 2013's growth of 17 percent.
PT Bank Mandiri Tbk (BMRI) projects that lending in 2013 will be 20%-22%. This is based
on banks' optimism about the status of State-Owned Enterprises in the Indonesian economy. As
of September, bank loans grew 22.8%, from Rp 297.5 trillion to Rp 365.2 trillion. The highest
lending growth occurred in the micro segment, which rose significantly by 77.3% to Rp 16.8
trillion. Meanwhile, micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs) loans grew 30% to Rp 50.6
trillion. Corporate Secretary of PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia, Tbk Muhamad Ali, said that BRI's
credit growth in 2013 reached 23.7 percent (year on year) to Rp 430.62 trillion from Rp 348.23
trillion in 2012.
The credit growth of the four government banks for five consecutive years can be explained
by the fact that none of the credit growth in 2013-2017 reached the target despite the increase from
the previous year. Of course, the cause of not achieving each of these targets can arise from
external or internal banks. 2014, for example, as we know, is the year the people held the
presidential election directly. In the run-up to the presidential election, the political temperature
has heated up, which can result in a non-conducive state security situation. It is quite natural for
banks to exercise restraint and reduce lending to avoid the emergence of bad debts.
However, after the Presidential Election has passed and can be held properly and the security
situation stabilized, there should be no more reason for government banks to be unable to achieve
targeted credit growth. After the presidential election, these four government banks should have
the courage to channel their credit to corporations and micro-enterprises to maximally support
Jokowi's program to channel credit, especially to MSMEs and housing loans. Not achieving this
credit growth target will affect the bank's performance. One of the indicators measuring a bank's
performance is the success of obtaining a profit. The bank's profit growth indicates that the bank's
financial performance is good so that the bank's operational activities can also go well. The bank's
financial performance can be seen through the bank's financial statements.
Analysts and other interested parties can collect qualitative information on the financial
statements by examining the relationship between the posts in the financial statements and
identifying trends in this relationship (Munawir, 2010). A good starting point in collecting this
information is ratio analysis. A ratio expresses the mathematical relationship between one quantity
and another. Ratio analysis expresses the relationship between selected financial statement data.
These relationships are expressed in simple terms, levels, or proportions. For financial statement
analysis, ratios can be classified into four types: liquidity ratio measuring the company's short-term
ability to pay its maturing obligations. The activity ratio measures how effectively the company uses
its assets. The profitability ratio measures the success or failure rate of a particular company or
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division throughout time. The coverage ratio measures the level of protection for long-term creditors
and investors.
One of the groups of users of financial statements that use financial ratio analysis is credit
analysts. Credit analysts have the task and responsibility of analyzing credit. Credit analysis aims to
examine or assess the credit applicant in depth about the state of the credit applicant's business or
project so that the credit implementation can run smoothly and not cause bad debts.
Several previous studies have observed the effect of financial ratios on profit growth in various
banking companies in Indonesia, including the research of (Wijaya, 2014), Andreas, and Errin Yani
Wijaya, "The Effect of Financial Ratios on Profit Growth of Regional Development Banks in
Indonesia with Credit Growth as an Intervening Variable (Study on Regional Development Banks
in Sumatra". The results showed that CAR partially negatively and significantly affected credit
growth and profit growth (Keown, 2008). NPLs have a negative effect not significantly on credit
growth but significantly on profit growth. ROA has a negative and significant effect on credit growth
but not significantly on profit growth. NIM has a negative and significant effect on credit growth
but not significantly on profit growth. LDR has a positive effect not significantly on credit growth
but significantly on profit growth. Meanwhile, existing credit growth can mediate perpetually
between CAR, NPL, NIM, ROA, and LDR financial ratios to bank profit growth in Sumatra from
2007 - 2011.
Is (Purnamasari, 2018) also conducting similar research titled "The Effect of Financial Ratios
on Profit Growth of Sharia People's Financing Banks in Indonesia"? Based on the results of the Error
Correction Model (VECM) Test, it is known that in the long term, the CAR and FDR variables have
a negative and significant relationship. The BOPO variables have a positive and significant
relationship, and there are negative and insignificant relationships in the NPF variables. Based on
the results of the Error Correction Model (VECM) Test, it is known that in the short term, the
variables in the NPF variable have a positive and significant relationship. In contrast, the CAR
variable has a negative and insignificant relationship. The BOPO and FDR variables show a positive
but insignificant relationship with profit growth at Sharia People's Financing Banks in Indonesia.
Based on the results of the Error Correction Model (VECM) Test, it is known that the term short
shows that the variables in the NPF variable have a positive and significant relationship. In contrast,
the CAR variable has a negative and insignificant relationship. The BOPO and FDR variables show
a positive but insignificant relationship with profit growth at Sharia People's Financing Banks in
Indonesia.
Another research conducted by (Sudaryanti, 2015) entitled Financial Ratio Analysis to Predict
Profit Growth in Banking Companies Listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange. The study's results
explained that LDR has an insignificant effect on profit growth, CAR has a significant effect on
profit growth, ROA variables have an insignificant effect on profit growth, and NPM has a
significant effect on profit growth.
(Sarwindah, 2014) has also conducted a study with some of the same variables as this study
entitled, "Analysis of the Effect of NPL, LDR, and BOPO on Changes in Profits With CAR as an
Intervening Variable (2014)." The results of the study explained, NPL has a significant effect on
changes in profits, NPL has an insignificant effect on changes in profits with CAR as an intervening
variable, LDR has no significant effect on changes in profit, and LDR has no significant effect on
changes in profit with CAR as an intervening variable, BOPO has no significant effect on changes
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in profit, and BOPO has no significant effect on changes in profits with CAR as the intervening
Variable.
After paying attention to the previous research above, it was found that the inconsistency of
the research results for several variables, such as in the research of (Sudaryanti, 2015), the CAR
variable had a significant effect on changes in profits. Still, in the research of (Sarwindah, 2014),
Isti Rohmah, and Reynaldi, CAR negatively and significantly affected credit growth. Furthermore,
it can be explained the difference between this study and previous studies, the previous study did
not test the influence of other financial ratios that are no less important than the other seven ratios
(CAR, ROA, NPM, NPL, BOPO, NIM, and LDR) namely using the variable Return On Equity
(ROE). Return On Equity (ROE) is a ratio that shows how much Equity contributes to creating net
profit. In other words, this ratio measures how much net profit will be generated from each dollar of
funds embedded in the Total Equity. The higher the return on Equity (ROE) means the higher the
net profit generated from each rupiah of funds embedded in the Equity. Conversely, the lower the
return on Equity, the lower the net profit generated from each dollar of funds embedded in the
Equity.
RESEARCH METHODS
This research is an associative study that aims to determine the relationship between two or
more variables (Nazir, 2005). This research aims to build a theory that can function, predict, and
control symptoms. This research is conducted formally, meaning it uses existing research, builds it
into a hypothesis, and tests it (Sugiyono, 2017). The relationship between variables in this study is
causal. ROA and ROE are independent variables (exogenous), profit growth is a dependent variable
(endogenous), and credit growth is an intervening variable (Kasmir & Pertama, 2012).
RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
Descriptive Analysis
Descriptive analysis is used to describe the sample data that has been obtained for each of the
variables without intending to make generally accepted conclusions.
Table 1
Descriptive Statistics
N
Range
Mini
mum
Maxi
mum
Mean
Std.
Deviation
Skewness
Kurto
sis
Stati
stic
Statisti
c
Statis
tic
Statis
tic
Stati
stic
Std.
Erro
r
Stati
stic
Stati
stic
Std. Error
Statistic
Std.
Error
ROA
32
4,01
1,14
5,15
3,09
16
,193
04
1,09
201
,248
,414
-,750
,809
ROE
32
32,88
10,95
43,83
23,2
144
1,49
112
8,43
507
,911
,414
,346
,809
credit growth
32
18,83
9,27
28,10
18,3
909
,978
91
5,53
755
-
,046
,414
-1,263
,809
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profit growth
32
117,63
-
30,73
86,90
23,1
363
4,34
707
24,5
907
2
,207
,414
1,081
,809
Valid N
(listwise)
32
Source: Processed Data with SPSS v.22
The SPSS display output shows the number of samples there are 32. Of these 32 sample
numbers, the lowest ROA ratio was 1.14. The ROA ratio is a ratio used to measure a bank's ability
to generate profit before tax based on total assets. The lowest ROA of government banks for eight
years from 2010 to 2017 was 1.14%, owned by the State Savings Bank in 2014. ROA is a picture of
a bank's productivity in managing funds so that it generates profits. Return On Asset (ROA) is a
ratio used to measure a bank's rentability level. The standard ROA is 0.5% - 1.25%. This means that
although BTN's ROA ratio is the lowest, it is still relatively good because it still meets the standards
set by Bank Indonesia (Sumarsan, 2013).
Based on the results of research in Table 4.1, it is indicated that the average ROA of state-
owned banks over the past eight years (2010-2017) is 3.0916%, where this average has generally
exceeded the standard set by Bank Indonesia, namely 0.5% - 1.25%. Meanwhile, the highest ROA
was 5.15%, owned by Bank Rakyat Indonesia in 2012.
ROE (Return on Equity) ratio is a ratio that measures a bank's ability to generate net profit
based on a specific share capital. ROE measures a bank's ability to generate a net profit based on its
core capital. Core capital is bank capital consisting of paid-up share capital, reserves disclosed as
donated capital, additional paid-up capital, retained earnings, impairment of available financial
instruments sold, and differences due to financial statements between international branches. The
standard ROE is 13%-18%. The lowest ROE of government banks for eight years from 2010 to 2017
was 10.95%, owned by the State Savings Bank in 2014. This means that for eight years, from 2010-
2017, BTN has been unable to generate a net profit using its core capital because BTN's ROE in
2014 did not meet the ROE standard set by Bank Indonesia, which is 13%-18%.
The highest ROE was 43.83%, owned by Bank Rakyat Indonesia in 2010. This means that
during 2010 – 2017, among these government banks, BRI was the bank that had the highest ability
to generate net profit from every rupiah of funds embedded in Equity. Based on the research results
in Table 4.1, it is indicated that the average ROE of government banks over the past eight years is
23.21% in general, which has exceeded the standard set by Bank Indonesia, which is 13%-18%. This
shows that the ability of government banks to make a profit by relying on their core capital has been
doing very well.
The lowest credit growth among government banks for eight years from 2010 to 2017 was
9.27%, owned by Bank Mandiri in 2016. This means that during these eight years, Bank Mandiri
has become a government bank that cannot provide benefits in the form of interest income as
expected. Meanwhile, the highest credit growth was 28.10%, owned by the State Savings Bank in
2012. The average value of credit growth of these government banks is 18.3909%, with a standard
deviation of 5.53755%. The skewness and kurtosis values are -0.046 and -1.263, respectively, so it
can be said that the credit growth data is normally distributed.
The highest profit growth was 86.90%, owned by the State Savings Bank in 2010. This means
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that for the last eight years since 2010, BTN has been the best-performing government bank by
providing the highest growth loans. Meanwhile, the lowest decline in profit among government
banks for eight years from 2010 to 2017 was -30.73% owned by Bank Mandiri in 2016. The average
profit growth of these state banks was 23.1363%, with a standard deviation of 24.59072%.
Test Classical Assumptions
In multiple regression analysis, it is necessary to avoid deviations in classical assumptions so
that problems do not arise in the use of multiple regression analysis (Gujarati, 2002). Three classical
assumption tests are carried out, namely the Multicholinearity test, the Autocorrelation test, and the
Heteroskedasticity test.
Normality Test
Before testing using the regression method using intervening variables, the condition for data
worth testing is that the data must be normally distributed. The normality test is used to test whether,
in a regression model, dependent variables, independent variables, or both have a normal distribution
or not. A good regression model is a normal or near-normal distribution (Santoso, 2002;212). The
data normality distribution chart can be shown in Figure 4.1 as follows:
Figure 1
Normal Graph P-P Plot of Regression Standardized Residual
Source: Processed Data with SPSS v.22
Based on Figure 1, the data spread around the normal line and follows the direction of the
diagonal regression line. This indicates that the regression model has met the assumption of
normality. Tests based on Kolmogorov-Smirnov values can be seen in Table 2 as follows :
Table 2
One-Sample Kolmogorov-Smirnov Test
ROA
ROE
credit
growth
profit
growth
N
32
32
32
32
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Normal
Parameters
a,b
Mean
3,09
16
23,2
144
18,3909
23,1363
Std.
Deviatio
n
1,09
201
8,43
507
5,53755
24,59072
Most Extreme
Differences
Absolute
,111
,146
,146
,117
Positive
,111
,146
,135
,117
Negative
-,078
-,089
-,146
-,106
Kolmogorov-Smirnov Z
,629
,825
,823
,659
Asymp. Sig. (2-tailed)
,824
,505
,507
,777
a. Test distribution is Normal.
b. Calculated from data.
Source: Processed Data with SPSS v.22
Testing using the One-Sample Kolmogorov-Smirnov Test method was carried out by looking
at the Asymp values. Sig. (2-tailed) with normality testing criteria if Asymp value. The data is
normally distributed with Sig. (2-tailed) greater than 0.05 (Wijaya: 2008). From Table 4.2, it can be
seen that the four dependent and independent variables already qualify for normality.
Multicollinearity Test
The first test conducted against three classical assumptions is a test of multicollinearity.
Multicollinearity testing aims to test the presence or absence of perfect relationships between
independent and dependent variables in regression models (Santoso, 2002: 206 - 207). In other
words, this test is carried out not to determine whether it is multicollinearity but dangerous because
there is no equation without multicollinearity. The rule of thumb used to determine that the
Tolerance value is harmless to the symptoms of multicollinearity is 0.1. The results of
multicollinearity testing for this research data can be explained using a coefficient table by paying
attention to the collinearity diagnostic column, such as Table 4.3 below:
Structural Equation I (Based on VIF and Tolerance Values)
Table 3
Coefficients
a
Model
Unstandardize
d
Coefficients
Standardized
Coefficients
t
Sig.
Colline
arity
Statisti
cs
B
Std.
Error
Beta
Tolera
nce
VIF
1
(Const
ant)
17,63
4
2,924
6,031
,000
ROA
-
3,415
1,795
-,673
-1,902
,067
,239
4,188
ROE
,487
,232
,742
2,097
,045
,239
4,188
a. Dependent Variable: Credit growth
Source: Data Processing with SPSS v.22
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Structural Equation II
Table 4
Coefficients
a
Model
Unstandardized
Coefficients
Standardi
zed
Coefficien
ts
t
Sig.
Collineari
ty
Statistics
B
Std.
Error
Beta
Tolera
nce
VIF
1
(Constant)
-2,817
18,896
-,149
,883
ROA
-12,031
8,195
-,534
-1,468
,153
,212
4,711
ROE
1,854
1,073
,636
1,727
,095
,207
4,823
Pertumbuha
n_Kredit
1,093
,799
,246
1,367
,182
,868
1,152
a. Dependent Variable: Profit growth
Source: Processed Data with SPSS v.22
Based on testing the assumption of multicollinearity on the observations that have been made,
the test results that can be seen in Table 3 and Table 4 can be concluded that based on the Tolerance
value, independent variables show a value that is more than 0.1, and based on the VIF value is less
than ten thus all independent variables are free from classical assumption testing.
Heteroskedasticity Test
This test aims to look at the distance of the squared points of the spread against the regression
line. Detecting this can be done in various ways. The Scatter Plot method was carried out in this
study to detect the presence of heteroskedasticity symptoms. The scatterplot chart shows that the
dots are spread randomly and scattered both above and below the number 0 on the Y axis.
Figure 2
Scatter Plot for Equation II
Source: Processed Data with SPSS v.22
Autocorrelation Test
If the Durbin-Watson value is close to 2 (two) indicates that there is no autocorrelation.
Another method used to detect autocorrelation symptoms can be used rule of thumb, if the value of
du < d < 4-du, then there is no autocorrelation (Gujarati, 2002).
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Structural Equation I (Based on Durbin Watson)
Table 5
Model Summary
Model
R
R Square
Adjusted
R Square
Std. An error
in the
Estimate
Durbin-
Watson
1
,364
a
,132
,072
5,33333
1,310
a. Predictors: (Constant), ROE, ROA
b. Dependent Variable: Credit growth
Source: Data Processing with SPSS v.22
Structural Equation II (Based on Durbin Watson)
Table 6
Model Summary
Model
R
R Square
Adjusted R
Square
Std. An error
in the
Estimate
Durbin-
Watson
1
,461
a
,213
,129
22,95624
1,738
a. Predictors: (Constant), Credit growth ROA, ROE
b. Dependent Variable: profit growth
Source: Processed Data with SPSS v.22
The table above shows that Durbin Watson's values of 1.153 and 1.777 are greater than -4 and
smaller than 4. Thus it can be concluded that there is neither positive autocholeration nor negative
autocholeration.
Path Analysis
First substructure path equation
Table 7
Model Summary
Model
R
R Square
Adjusted R
Square
Std. An error in
the Estimate
1
,364
a
,132
,072
5,33333
a. Predictors: (Constant), ROE, ROA
b. Dependent Variable: Credit growth
Source: Processed Data with SPSS v.22
Table 8
Coefficients
a
Model
Unstandardized
Coefficients
Standardized
Coefficients
t
Sig.
B
Std. Error
Beta
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1
(Constant)
17,634
2,924
6,031
,000
ROA
-3,415
1,795
-,673
-
1,902
,067
ROE
,487
,232
,742
2,097
,045
a. Dependent Variable: Credit growth
Source: Processed Data with SPSS v.22
Analysis of the model path and calculation of the influence of independent variables on
dependents showed a direct influence of -3,415 and indirect influences of -3,732, while the total
influence from ROA to Profit Growth was -15,765. Since indirect influence is less than significant
direct influence b > 0.05, credit growth is proven to be an intervening variable for ROA. This
supports hypothesis two that ROA influences Profit Growth through Credit Growth as an intervening
variable.
Analysis of the model path and calculation of the influence of independent variables ROE to
the dependent showed a direct influence result of 0.487. The indirect influence was 3,454, while the
total influence from ROE to Profit Growth was 5,308. Since indirect influence is greater than direct
influence, significant b < 0.05, then Credit Growth is not shown to be an intervening variable for
ROE. The regression results of the substructure path equation I are as follows.
Y = 17,634 + (3,415) X
1
+ 0,487 X
2
+ e1
Equation of the path of the second substructure
Table 9
Model Summary
Model
R
R Square
Adjusted R
Square
Std. An error in the
Estimate
1
,461
a
,213
,129
22,95624
a. Predictors: (Constant), Credit growth, ROA, ROE
b. Dependent Variable: Profit growth
Source: Processed Data with SPSS v.22
ε
1
= 0,931
p
2
= --3,415
p
4
= 0,487
X1
X2
Y
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Table 10
Coefficients
a
Model
Unstandardized
Coefficients
Standardized
Coefficients
t
Sig.
B
Std.
Error
Beta
1
(Constant)
-2,817
18,896
-,149
,883
ROA
-
12,03
1
8,195
-,534
-
1,468
,153
ROE
1,854
1,073
,636
1,727
,095
Credit growth
1,093
,799
,246
1,367
,182
a. Dependent Variable: Profit growth
Source: Processed Data with SPSS v.22
Analysis of the model path and calculation of the influence of independent variables on
dependents showed the direct influence of ROA on Profit Growth of -12,031. ROE to Earnings
Growth of 1,854 and Credit to Profit Growth of 1,093. The regression results of the substructure II
path equation are as follows.
Z = -2,817 + (12,031) X
1
+1,854 X
2
+ 1,093 Y + e2
Hypothesis Test
Based on the test results using the Multiple Linear Regression method, the effect of ROA and
ROE on profit growth can be analyzed with credit growth as an intervening variable in government
banks in 2010 – 2017. Based on the results of calculations with multiple linear regression analysis
obtained, the equation:
Y = 17,634 + (3,415) X
1
+ 0,487 X
2
+ e1 Persamaan I
Z = -2,817 + (12,031) X
1
+1,854 X
2
+ 1,093 Y + e2 Persamaan II
The Effect of ROA on Profit Growth
Return On Assets is one of the profitability ratios. In the analysis of financial statements, this
ratio is most often highlighted since it can show the company's success in making a profit. Return
On Assets can measure the company's ability to make profits in the past and then project in the
future. In other words, this ratio measures how much net profit will be generated from each dollar
of funds embedded in total assets. The greater a company's return on assets (ROA), the higher the
p
1
=-12,031
ROA
(X1)
ROE
(X2)
Pertumbuhan
Laba (Z)
Pertumbuhan
Kredit (Y)
p
3
=1,854
p
5
=1,093
ε
2
= 0,887
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275
net profit generated from each rupiah of funds embedded in the total assets. However, if the Return
On Assets ratio is low, then this shows that the company's asset ability is less effective (Sujarweni,
2015).
The highest ROA was 5.15%, owned by Bank Rakyat Indonesia in 2012. The profit growth
ratio in 2012 for BRI was 21.93%. Meanwhile, the highest profit growth ratio was experienced by
BTN at 86.90% in 2010. In comparison, BTN's ROA ratio of only 2.05% this year is still far below
BRI's ROA in 2012. This means that although the highest BRI ROA ratio in 2012 exceeded the ROA
ratio standard set by Bank Indonesia, BRI did not experience the same profit growth.
In contrast, the lowest ROA of government banks for eight years from 2010 to 2017 was 1.14%,
owned by the State Savings Bank in 2014. This means that in 2014 BTN could still utilize its assets
to generate profits (profit before tax). The standard ROA ratio set by Bank Indonesia is 0.5%-1.25%.
Although total assets in 2014 increased from Rp 131,170 billion in 2013 to Rp 144,576 billion, the
bank's profit growth decreased by -26.66% in the same year.
Ha1: ROA does not affect good profit growth.
The Effect of ROA on Profit Growth with Credit Growth as an Intervening Variable
The ROA ratio shows how much assets contribute to creating profit before tax through credit
growth. The higher returns received from assets indicate the higher profits obtained through high
credit growth.
BTN owned the lowest ROA ratio of 1.14% in 2014. Suppose you look at the credit growth
experienced by BTN in the same year, which was 15.02%, quite high compared to the credit growth
experienced by the other three government banks, even though the ROA ratio of the three banks was
higher. However, if you look at the profit obtained by BTN in 2014, this bank experienced a decline
in profit to -26.66%. This means that through credit growth, BTN cannot leverage its asset holdings
to achieve profit growth as desired.
Ha2: Return On Asset (ROA) does not affect earnings growth, with Credit Growth as an
intervening Variable acceptable.
The Effect of ROE on Profit Growth
Return on Equity is a ratio that shows how much Equity contributes to creating net income. In
other words, this ratio measures how much net profit will be generated from each dollar of funds
embedded in the Total Equity. This ratio is calculated by dividing net income by Equity. The higher
the return on Equity, the higher the net profit generated from each dollar of funds embedded in the
Equity. Conversely, the lower the return on Equity, the lower the net profit generated from each
dollar of funds embedded in the Equity (Utari & Purwanto, n.d.).
The lowest ROE ratio of government banks for eight years from 2010 to 2017 was 10.95%,
owned by the State Savings Bank in 2014. However, if you look at the profit growth experienced by
this bank in 2014, BTN experienced a significant decline in profit compared to the profit growth
experienced by this bank in 2013. When observed in previous years, from 2010 to 2013, the trend
has indeed decreased, and 2014 was a very painful decline in profits for BTN. This year, BTN capital
ownership has increased since 2010 to Rp 12,206 billion. In 2014 the company managed to record
an increase in lending, reaching Rp 116 trillion, growing 15.38% from Rp 100.46 trillion in 2013.
Then, in line with credit growth, Bank BTN's third-party funds (DPK) also increased to Rp 106.5
trillion in 2014, growing 10.67% from the previous period of Rp 96.21 trillion. Meanwhile, Bank
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BTN's net profit in 2014 reached Rp1.1 trillion (Syamsuddin, 1987).
H03: Return On Equity (ROE) affects earnings growth.
The Effect of ROE on Profit Growth with Credit Growth as an Intervening Variable
ROE, as previously explained, is the ability of a company to make a profit using its capital.
Based on the test results, it was obtained that ROE affects profit growth with credit growth as an
intervening variable with a coefficient of 0.487 and significant at 0.045.
In 2010, BTN's total Equity increased significantly by 20% higher, mainly driven by a
significant increase in net profit of 86.75% or around Rp 425 billion in 2010. As a result, Equity
grew from Rp 5.4 trillion to Rp 6.4 trillion in 2010.
Throughout 2014, the distribution of red plate company loans in the banking sector of PT Bank
Rakyat Indonesia (Persero) Tbk (BBRI) increased by 13.88 percent to Rp 57.79 trillion, compared
to Rp 490.41 trillion in 2013. The proportion of microloans is high at 31.25 percent of Bank BRI's
total loans, comprising 7.3 million customers. BRI can maintain its position as a national bank
focusing on the MSME segment. Year on year (yoy), BRI microloans grew by 16 percent, compared
to the growth in 2013. Meanwhile, the number of BRI micro customers increased by 800 thousand
in 2014 (Metrotvnews.com 26/1/2015).
In 2015 PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia (Persero) Tbk recorded total loans disbursed Rp 558.4
trillion. This figure has increased by 13.9 percent compared to 2014, which amounted to Rp 490.41
trillion. The increase in lending occurred in all lines of business. Loans in the micro segment, the
company's main business, grew 16.8 percent to Rp 178.9 trillion. The number of customers increased
to 7.8 million customers. Credit growth in the micro segment was partly driven by the Government
of Indonesia's relaunch of the People's Business Credit (KUR) in mid-August 2015.
H04: Return On Equity (ROE) affects earnings growth, with Credit Growth as an acceptable
intervening variable.
The Effect of Credit Growth on Profit Growth
The test results on the effect of credit growth on profit growth, as shown in equation II and
Table 4.10, show that the value of the credit growth coefficient of 1.093 and significant at 0.182 is
a positive but not significant effect. Thus the hypothesis (H05) of profit growth having a significant
positive influence on the credit growth of government banks is unacceptable.
Credit growth of PT Bank Negara Indonesia Tbk (BNI) throughout 2016 was recorded to grow
20.6%. BNI's credit growth rate exceeded the banking industry's average credit growth of 8.5% in
November 2016. Loans that BNI has disbursed until the end of 2016 were recorded at Rp 393.28
trillion, compared to the same period in 2015 of Rp 326.11 trillion." BNI's credit growth in 2016 of
20.6% surpassed the credit growth of the Indonesian banking industry in general. In the same year,
profit growth also increased from a decrease in profit -15.58% in 2015 to 24.82% in 2016.
During 2010, Bank BTN's financial performance showed satisfactory results. This can be seen
from the growth of Loans and Financing, which increased by 26.55% from Rp 40.73 trillion to Rp
51.55 trillion. Therefore, Profit Before Tax increased by 54.18% from Rp 745.82 billion at the end
of 2009 to Rp 1.25 trillion at the end of 2010. 2010 was an important time for Bank BTN, where we
laid the foundations for sustainable growth in terms of organization, human resources, infrastructure,
information and technology systems, risk management, and the implementation of good governance.
As a result, Bank BTN remained consistent in scoring business growth and profit in 2010 compared
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to achievements during 2009. Until the end of December 2010, Bank BTN scored a net profit of Rp
915.94 billion or grew 86.75% compared to the same period last year (y-o-y). This profit
contribution was mostly obtained from the bank's net interest income, which amounted to Rp 3.35
trillion, or grew 45.72% from the previous year's period.
Regarding asset growth, as of December 31, 2010, Bank BTN increased to 17.00% to Rp 68.39
trillion from Rp 58.45 trillion in the previous year. Based on these assets, Bank BTN remains in the
ten national commercial banks group with the largest assets. Meanwhile, in terms of capital ratio,
amidst the intensive credit expansion that we carried out in 2010, Bank BTN's capital adequacy ratio
(CAR) was recorded at 16.74%. Bank BTN's loan-to-deposit ratio (LDR) as of December 31, 2010,
108.42%, reinforces our commitment to active banking intermediation institutions focusing on
housing financing. By Bank BTN's commitment to becoming the leader of the housing finance
market in Indonesia, which has been the focus of business since 1974, in 2010, Bank BTN
consistently occupied the first position as the bank with the highest market share (27%) in the
distribution of home ownership loans (KPR) in Indonesia. Total loans disbursed increased by
26.55% to Rp 51.55 trillion compared to the same period at the end of 2009, Rp 40.73 trillion. This
achievement is far above the national credit growth of only around 22% in 2010. In addition, Bank
BTN is very dominant in the distribution of KPR Subsidies, where we control 97% of the total
provision of new subsidized mortgages until December 31, 2010. Referring to the 2012 business
strategy, Bank BTN targets the composition between housing and non-housing loans at a maximum
of 85%: 15%. Until the end of December 31, 2010, 90.9% of the loans disbursed were housing loans
consisting of 72.69% for mortgages, 11.03% for housing construction loans, and the remaining loans
for housing-related industries.
Bank BTN lays the foundations of sustainable growth by changing the organizational
structure, human resources, IT, GCG implementation, product & service development, and network
expansion. Bank BTN and the Soldier Housing Welfare Foundation (YKPP) under the Ministry of
Defense renewed the cooperation that has been going on since 1980, including the management of
YKPP funds, the provision of mortgage facilities, and down payment assistance for YKPP members.
Bank BTN, in collaboration with the National Civil Service Agency (BKN), launched an Electronic
Employee Card for civil servants in the Bangkalan area. In addition to being a civil servant identity
card, this multifunctional card also functions as an ATM and Debit card. Since October 1, 2010,
Bank BTN, in collaboration with the Ministry of Public Housing, has distributed mortgages with the
Housing Financing Liquidity Facility (FLPP). The signing of the first credit agreement with this
facility was carried out at the Bekasi branch office (Yamin & Complete, 2011).
Bank BTN actively disburses housing and consumer loans. These factors were supported by
strengthening the rupiah at the level of Rp 8,900 - Rp 9,000 per US dollar. As a result, companies
and communities are freer to make credit decisions to support the purchase of homes and daily
necessities. All these economic factors and conditions became important keys to the growth of the
banking sector in 2010. The year 2010 was an important period for Bank BTN, where bank BTN
laid the foundations for sustainable growth in terms of organization, human resources, infrastructure,
information and technology systems, risk management, and the implementation of good governance.
As a result, Bank BTN remained consistent in scoring business growth and profit in 2010 compared
to achievements during 2009. Until the end of December 2010, Bank BTN scored a net profit of Rp
915.94 billion or grew 86.75% compared to the same period last year (y-o-y). This profit
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contribution was mostly obtained from the bank's net interest income, which amounted to Rp 3.35
trillion, or grew 45.72% from the previous year's period.
Regarding asset growth, as of December 31, 2010, Bank BTN increased to 17.00% to Rp 68.39
trillion from Rp 58.45 trillion in the previous year. Based on these assets, Bank BTN remains in the
ten national commercial banks group with the largest assets. Bank BTN has also launched new
products and relaunched and rebranded savings products such as BTN Junior Savings, BTN Juara
Savings, BTN Hajj Savings and BTN Batara, and BTN Prima Savings. As a result, at the end of
December 2010, total third-party funds grew 18.23% to Rp 47.55 trillion compared to the previous
year of Rp 40.21 trillion.
This achievement in 2010 made PT Bank Tabungan Negara Tbk (BTN) successfully win the
highest award as the overall champion (Antara News, September 15, 2011) "Annual Report Award
2010" organized by the Ministry of SOEs in collaboration with Bapepam, Directorate General of
Taxes, Indonesia Stock Exchange, Indonesian Accounting Association and National Committee on
Governance Policy (Kieso et al., 2008). Not only that, on the night of the ARA 2010 award,
Wednesday (14/9), BTN also won first place in the public BUMN / BUMD (listed company)
category. Bank BTN's financial statements as of December 31, 2010 (audited), which became ARA's
assessment, showed good performance. As can be seen from the profit, which grew 86.90 percent,
assets grew 17 percent, credit grew 26.55 percent, and third-party funds grew 18.23 percent, with
financial ratios also recorded as quite good. The annual report is a mirror of what is done or is a
manifestation of a company's performance which is carried out in the form of an annual report to
shareholders and all stakeholders.
PT Bank Negara Indonesia (Persero) Tbk or BNI reported credit disbursements of Rp 441.3
trillion throughout 2017. This achievement grew 12.2 percent annually (yoy) compared to the same
period of Rp 393.3 trillion the previous year. President Director of BNI Achmad Baiquni said credit
disbursement amounted to IDR 345.5 trillion or 78.3 percent of the total loans disbursed to the
business banking segment. Rp 71.4 trillion, or 16.2 percent of the total loans, were disbursed to the
consumer segment. "The remaining IDR 24.37 trillion or 5.5 percent of the total credit is channeled
through subsidiaries," said Baiquni in a press conference at BNI Head Office Wednesday
(Kompas.com 17/1/2018). For business banking segment loans, IDR 134.4 trillion was disbursed to
non-SOE corporate debtors, including lending to debtors outside Indonesia. This figure grew by 14.9
percent (yoy). Throughout 2017, BNI recorded a net profit of Rp 13.62 trillion. A total of IDR 84.37
trillion was distributed to state-owned debtors. For the rest, loans in the business banking segment
were also disbursed to medium and small debtors, respectively, idr 70.26 trillion and Rp 56.48
trillion or grew 14.6 percent and 11.4 percent on an annual basis. Meanwhile, credit growth in BNI's
consumer segment was driven primarily by payroll loans, which grew 47.1 percent.
H05: Credit growth affects acceptable profit growth.
CONCLUSION
ROA affects profit growth. ROA affects earnings growth with credit growth as an intervening
variable. ROE affects profit growth. ROE affects profit growth with credit growth as an intervening
variable. Credit Growth has a positive effect on Profit Growth. For companies, it is expected to pay
attention to other variables, such as the size of the company, the age of the company, the level of
leverage, sales levels, and past profit growth that affect the company's Profit Growth in addition to
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matters related to the company's Equity so that it can take appropriate steps in planning the
company's profit growth. For companies, it is expected to pay attention to other variables, such as
the size of the company, the age of the company, the level of leverage, sales levels, and past profit
growth that affect the company's Profit Growth in addition to matters related to the company's Equity
so that it can take appropriate steps in planning the company's profit growth. The effectiveness of
lending is one of the efforts to increase the company's profit so that the role of banks as fund
intermediation can run. For subsequent researchers, it is better not only to use the variables used in
this study but to add other independent variables besides return on assets and Equity.
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