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Journal Of Economics, Technology, and Business (JETBIS)
Volume 2, Number 9 September 2023
p-ISSN 2964-903X; e-ISSN 2962-9330
THE INFLUENCE OF LEADING SECTORS ON POVERTY RATE IN THE DISTRICT
PADANG LAWAS UTARA
Khairul Kamal
Universitas Sumatera Utara, Indonesia
Email:kamalregar26@gmail.com
KEYWORDS:
GDP, leading Sectors,
Poverty Rate
ABSTRACT
Leading sectors are expected to be able to overcome the problem of poverty-
level economic development. The purpose of this study is to find out which
sectors are the leading sectors in North Padang Lawas Regency and to find
out how the growth of these leading sectors influences the poverty rate in
North Padang Lawas Regency. The type of data used in this study is secondary
data obtained from the Central Bureau of Statistics of North Padang Lawas
Regency and the Central Bureau of Statistics of North Sumatra Province. The
results of this study are based on Location Quotient (LQ) and Growth Ratio
Model (MRP) analysis, there are three leading sectors in North Padang Lawas
Regency, namely agriculture, animal husbandry, and forestry; processing
industry sector; as well as the construction sector. Based on the results of
multiple linear regression analysis simultaneously leading sectors have a
significant influence on the poverty rate in North Padang Lawas Regency.
Partially, the agricultural, livestock, and forestry sectors have a positive and
significant effect on the level of poverty. Partially, the manufacturing sector
has a negative and significant effect on the poverty rate. Partially, the
construction sector has a negative and insignificant effect on the poverty rate.
INTRODUCTION
The growth of a region or region is a condition that the government always wants to achieve to achieve
good regional economic growth and continue to increase. The economic growth of a region is closely related
to regional economic development. Economic development of a region is defined as a process of local
government and community managing existing resources and forming a pattern of partnership between local
government and private sector to create new jobs and stimulate the development of economic activities in the
region (Arsyad, 2017).
Indonesia is a country with a decentralized system. The central government has the authority to hand
over some of its power to the regions based on regional autonomy rights. Regional autonomy is the authority
to regulate the interests of the community and its region.
Every regional economic development effort has the main objective to increase the number and type
of job opportunities for regional communities. Regional development goals are very complex because of the
close relationship between each development goal. Thus, it is necessary to establish a priority scale for
development goals to be achieved. This priority scale is useful for determining the extent to which regional
development goals of an economic, social, and political nature need to be achieved in the future.
To achieve that goal. Local governments and their communities must jointly take regional development
initiatives. The main problem in regional development lies in emphasizing development policies based on the
peculiarities of the region concerned (endogenous development) by using the potential of human resources,
institutions, and physical resources locally (Arsyad, 2017). This orientation leads us to take initiatives from
the region in the development process to create new employment opportunities and stimulate increased
economic activity. Identifying potential economic sectors is part of the process of achieving success in
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regional economic development.
In a local government system, economic growth is indicated by the increase in the production of goods
and services measured through the Gross Regional Domestic Product (GDP) of a region or region. Identifying
potential economic sectors in a region can also be done by analyzing GDP based on current prices and the
basis of constant prices. Areas that have the potential to develop larger will experience more rapid
development, then the development of the area will stimulate the development of other areas around it.
Likewise, sectors that have the potential to grow bigger tend to be developed earlier.
The results of (Mutaali, 2023)analysis of Klassen Typology show that districts/cities in North Sumatra
Province that are in the classification of fast-advancing and fast-growing areas are South Tapanuli Regency,
Deli Serdang Regency, North Padang Lawas Regency, Pematangsiantar City, and Medan City.
Table 1
Gross Regional Domestic Product Growth Rate based on Constant Prices 2010 (percent) in North
Padang Lawas 2019-2020
Field of Effort
Year
2018
2019
2020
A. Agriculture, Forestry and
Fisheries
5,38
5.76
3.38
B. Mining and Quarrying
6.92
7.22
-1.93
C. Processing Industry
5,84
3.87
1.64
D. Electricity and Gas
Procurement
1.08
5.24
6.29
E. Water Procurement,
Waste Management,
Waste and Recycling
3.36
5.21
3.54
F. Construction
4.41.
5.89
-5.10
G. Wholesale and Retail
Trade; Car and
Motorcycle Repair
6.71
6.81
-0.58
H. Transportation and
Warehousing
7.10
7.05
-0.73
I. Provision of
Accommodation and
Food & Drink
5.55
6.46
-0.97
J. Information and
Communication
6.85
8.41
9.06
K. Financial Services and
Insurance
3.02
1.97
1.51
L. Real Estate
8.83
5.08
3.78
M. Company Services
6.51
6.24
-0.73
N. Government
Administration, Defense,
and Compulsory Social
Security
4.50
7.67
-0.59
O. Education Services
6.12
5.92
3.26
P. Health Services and
Social Activities
7.83
4.03
2.04
Q. Other services
6.15
6.05
-0.40
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Sum
5.58
5.61
1.14
Sumber : BPS Kabupaten Padang Lawas Utara (2022)
It can be seen from Table 1 that based on GDP data for each sector in North Padang Lawas Regency
from 2019 to 2020, GRDP experienced a decreased growth from 5.61% to 1.14%. Sectors that experienced
an increase were the Water Procurement, Waste Management, and recycling sector from 5.24% to 6.29% and
the Information and Communication Sector from 8.41% to 9.06%.
The problem of poverty is a multidimensional development challenge and is a part that always appears
in people's lives in general (Suryawati, 2005). The Central Bureau of Statistics of North Padang Lawas
Regency (2020) explained that the Indonesian state is still experiencing poverty problems. Poverty should be
the main objective of solving the problems faced by Indonesia because poverty is a basic aspect of reference
for successful economic development. The poverty severity index describes the spread of expenditure among
the poor. The higher the index value, the higher the inequality among the poor. The poverty depth index is a
measure of the average expenditure gap of each poor person against the poverty line, the higher the index
value, the further the average expenditure of the population from the poverty line. The formula for finding
the poverty depth index is:
information
P = Poverty severity index
α = 5
z = Poverty line.
yi = Average monthly per capita expenditure of people below the poverty line (i=1, 2, 3, ...., q), yi < z
q = Many people are below the poverty line.
N = Population.
The higher the index value, the higher the inequality among the poor. The poverty severity index
describes the spread of expenditure among the poor; the higher the index value, the higher the inequality of
expenditure among the poor. The formula for finding the poverty severity index is:
Information
P = Poverty severity index
α = 5
z = Poverty line.
yi = Average monthly per capita expenditure of people below the poverty line (i=1, 2, 3, ...., q), yi < z
q = Many people are below the poverty line.
N = Population.
Table 2
Tingkat Kemiskinan Padang Lawas Utara
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Year
Population
(jiwa)
Number of Poor
People (thousand
inhabitants)
Poverty Line
(Rupiah/Capita/Month)
Depth
Index
Severity
Index
2011
277423
24,03
229 621
1,35
0,35
2012
272713
23,72
252 290
1,18
0,32
2013
267771
25,01
243 213
1,62
0,22
2014
262895
23,86
246 951
1,26
0,34
2015
257807
27,67
256 219
1,23
0,27
2016
252589
27,88
278 290
1,46
0,43
2017
247286
27,98
291 036
1,54
0,32
2018
241881
26,82
321 076
1,41
0,37
2018
236290
26,06
342 885
1,18
0,24
2020
230685
26,79
380 379
1,20
0,22
Sumber : BPS Padang Lawas Utara
From Table 2 it can be seen that from 2011 to 2020 the number of poor people fluctuated. However,
in 2017 the number of poor people showed the highest number. The poverty line figure shows an overall
increase from 2011 to 2020. The depth index and poverty severity index of North Padang Lawas district from
2011 to 2020 are fluctuating. As of 2017, the depth index has increased and managed to fall in 2018 and 2019
and increase again in 2020. The severity index managed to fall in 2017 and increased in 2018 and again
decreased in 2019 and 2020. This shows that in several years the level of inequality between poor people in
North Padang Lawas Regency is also still fluctuating.
North Padang Lawas Regency is an area that has a superior sector. It is important to know whether the
existence of the leading sector as a priority sector of the government to increase regional economic growth
and be able to increase regional development and provide community welfare as seen from the poverty level
in North Padang Lawas District. It is expected that the leading sector in North Padang Lawas District will be
able to provide improvements to economic performance in North Padang Lawas District through poverty
reduction in North Padang Lawas District, and not only move on creating value.
RESEARCH METHODS
The type of research in this study is quantitative descriptive research where research uses an objective
research approach including data collection and data analysis using statistical tests (Hermawan 2017).
Research Variables
The research variables in this study are Gross Regional Domestic Product per sector based on constant
prices in 2010 (Rupiah) North Padang Lawas Regency (2011-2020), Gross Regional Domestic Product per
sector based on constant prices in 2010 (Rupiah) North Sumatra Province (2011-2020), Gross Regional
Domestic Product Growth based on constant prices in 2010 leading sectors (Rp) North Padang Lawas
Regency (2011-2020), poverty rate of North Padang Lawas Regency (Total Population) (2011-2020).
Seventeen sectors from 2013 to 2020 were made into 9 sectors by researchers with details: (1)
Agricultural Sector; (2) Mining and Quarrying Sector; (3) Processing Industry Sector; (4) Procurement of
electricity, gas + water; (5) Construction Sector; (6) Large Trade and Retail Sector + Food and Beverage
Accommodation Provision Sector; (7) Transportation and Warehousing Sector + Information and
Communication Sector; (8) Financial Sector + Real Estate Sector + Corporate Services Sector; (9)
Government Adm. Sector + Education Service Sector + Health and Social Services Sector + Other Service
Sector.
Data Collection Techniques
In this study, the author uses secondary data, namely, research data obtained by researchers indirectly
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through intermediary media by taking documents or written evidence in the form of data reports. The data
used in this study is annual data. Data is obtained using documentation, namely data collection which is
carried out with the category of classification of written data related to problems in research from various
sources such as books and publications listed on the website. The data used in this study was sourced from
the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) of North Padang Lawas Regency and North Sumatra Province as well as
the official website of the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) of North Padang Lawas Regency and North
Sumatra Province.
Data Analysis
To answer the first problem, namely what sector is the leading sector in North Padang Lawas Regency,
Location Quotient (LQ) analysis tools, Growth Ratio Model (MRP) analysis, and Overlay analysis are
used.To answer the second problem, namely the relationship between the growth of leading sectors to the
poverty rate in North Padang Lawas Regency using a multiple linear regression analysis tool using the SPSS
program.
RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
Analisis Location Quotient
Location Quotient (LQ) analysis is an analytical tool used to identify what sectors have comparative
advantages usually called base sectors. In this study, the LQ results obtained were obtained by comparing the
role of a sector in North Padang Lawas Regency against a wider area, namely North Sumatra Province. There
is also an LQ value that will be obtained and will have a range from zero to an infinite positive number.
Table 3
Rata-Rata Nilai LQ Kabuapten Padang Lawas Utara
SECTOR
Rata-Rata
LQ
A. Agriculture, Forestry, and Fisheries
1.77
B. Mining and Quarrying
0.25
C. Processing Industry
1.68
D. Electricity and Gas Procurement
0.92
E. Water Procurement, Waste
Management, Waste and Recycling
0.44
F. Construction
1.19
G. Wholesale and Retail Trade; Car and
Motorcycle Repair
0.59
H. Transportation and Warehousing
0.43
I. Provision of Accommodation and
Food and Drink
0.39
J. Information and Communication
0.24
K. Financial Services and Insurance
0.25
L. Real Estate
0.84
M, N. Corporate Services
4.33
O. Government Administration,
Defense, and Compulsory Social
Security
0.01
P. Education Services
0.38
Q. Health Services and Social Activities
0.50
R, S, T, U. Other services
0.06
Source: Data Processed (2022)
The largest LQ value if sorted is given by sector (1) company services; (2) agriculture, animal
husbandry, and forestry; (3) processing industry; (4) construction; (5) procurement of electricity and gas; (6)
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real estate; (7) wholesale and retail trade, repair of cars and motorcycles; (8) health services and social
activities; (9) water supply, waste management, waste, and recycling; (10) transportation and warehousing;
(11) provision of food and beverage accommodation; (12) Education services; (13) mining and quarrying;
(14) financial and insurance services; (15) information and communication; (16) other services; and (17)
government administration, defense, and social security. Based on the results of the LQ above, it can be seen
the order based on the contribution of each sector to the GRDP in North Padang Lawas Regency.
Growth Ratio Model Analysis
Growth Ratio Model Analysis (MRP) was used to see the magnitude of the growth ratio between the
study area, namely North Padang Lawas Regency, and the reference area, North Sumatra Province. There are
two instruments in the Growth Ratio Model (MRP) analysis, namely RPr and RPs. RPr (Reference Area
Growth Ratio) is a ratio between the growth of the economic sector in the reference area or North Sumatra
Province to the aggregate economic growth in the reference area, namely North Sumatra Province. RPs (Study
Area Growth Ratio) itself is the ratio between the growth of the economic sector in the study area or North
Padang Lawas Regency to the aggregate economic growth table below.
Table 4
Koefisein MRP North Padang Lawas Regency
Sector
RPr
Rps
Value
Notasi
Value
Notasi
A. Agriculture,
Forestry, and
Fisheries
1.02
+
1.16
+
B. Mining and
Quarrying
1.77
+
0.74
-
C. Processing
Industry
0.60
-
1.92
+
D. Electricity and Gas
Procurement
1.06
+
0.92
-
E. Water
Procurement, Waste
Management, Waste
and Recycling
1.23
+
1.03
+
F. Construction
1.18
+
1.51
+
G. Wholesale and
Retail Trade; Car and
Motorcycle Repair
1.10
+
1.25
+
H. Transportation and
Warehousing
0.81
-
1.80
+
I. Provision of
Accommodation and
Food and Drink
1.05
+
0.95
-
J. Information and
Communication
2.11
+
0.87
-
K. Financial Services
and Insurance
1.23
+
1.35
+
L. Real Estate
1.42
+
1.37
+
M, N. Corporate
Services
1.21
+
0.72
-
O. Government
Administration,
Defense, and
Compulsory Social
Security
1.03
+
1.12
+
P. Education Services
1.10
+
1.30
+
Q. Health Services
and Social Activities
1.82
+
0.87
-
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R, S, T, U. Other
services
1.27
+
0.92
-
Source: Data Processed (2022)
From the results of MRP analysis, the two indicators can be combined, namely the Reference Growth
Ratio (RPr) and Study Growth Ratio (RPs) to see the economic sector in North Padang Lawas Regency that
has the potential to be developed, in this analysis the classification is divided into four, namely as follows:
a.
Klasifikasi 1
RPr value (+) and RPs value (+), which means that sectors in classification 1 have dominant growth both
in North Sumatra Province and in North Padang Lawas Regency. The sectors included in classification 1
are (1) agriculture, animal husbandry and forestry; (2) water supply, waste management, waste and
recycling; (3) construction; (4) wholesale and retail trade; repair of cars and motorcycles; (5) financial and
insurance services; (6) real estate; (7) government administration, defense and compulsory social security;
(10) Education services.
b.
Klasifikasi 2
RPr value (+) and RPs value (-), which means sectors in classification 2 have prominent growth in North
Sumatra Province but not prominent in North Padang Lawas Regency. Sectors included in classification
2 are (1) mining and quarrying; (2) procurement of electricity and gas (3) provision of accommodation
and food and drink; (4) information and communication; (5) corporate services; (6) health services and
social activities; (7) other services.
c.
Klasifikasi 3
RPr value (-) and RPs value (+), which means sectors in classification 3 have growth that is not prominent
in North Sumatra Province but prominent in North Padang Lawas Regency. Sectors included in
classification 3 are: (1) processing industry; and (2) transportation and warehousing.
d.
Klasifikasi 4
The RPr value (-) and RPs value (-), mean that sectors in classification 4 have growth that is not prominent
in North Sumatra Province or North Padang Lawas Regency. Sectors included in Classification 4 None
of the sectors are included in the classification.
Analysis Overlay
Overlay analysis is generally an analysis that combines results from Location Quotient (LQ) analysis
with Growth Ratio Model (MRP) analysis. In the Overlay analysis, the merger is intended to see what sectors
are the leading sectors in Padang Lawas Uara Regency. In this context, the results of the Location Quotient
(LQ) analysis to see the contribution of the economic sector in North Padang Lawas Regency and the results
of the Growth Ratio Model (MRP) analysis are seen from the value of the Study Area Growth Ratio (RPs) to
see from the growth of the economic sector in North Padang Lawas Regency where growth in the context of
RPs is the growth of the economic sector obtained from the comparison results of districts North Padang
Lawas with a wider area above it, namely North Sumatra Province.
Table 5
Overlay Analysis of North Padang Lawas Regency in 2011-2020
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Sector
LQ
Rps
Overlay
Value
Notasi
Value
Notasi
Notasi
A. Agriculture,
Forestry, and
Fisheries
1.77
+
1.16
+
++
B. Mining and
Quarrying
0.25
-
0.74
-
--
C. Processing
Industry
1.68
+
1.92
+
++
D. Electricity
and Gas
Procurement
0.92
+
0.92
+
+-
E. Water
Procurement,
Waste
Management,
Waste and
Recycling
0.44
-
1.03
+
-+
F. Construction
1.19
+
1.51
+
++
G. Wholesale
and Retail
Trade; Car and
Motorcycle
Repair
0.59
-
1.25
+
-+
H.
Transportation
and
Warehousing
0.43
-
1.80
+
-+
I. Provision of
Accommodation
and Food and
Drink
0.39
-
0.95
-
--
J. Information
and
Communication
0.24
-
0.87
-
--
K. Financial
Services and
Insurance
0.25
-
1.35
+
-+
L. Real Estate
0.84
-
1.37
+
-+
M, N. Corporate
Services
4.33
+
0.72
+
+-
O. Government
Administration,
Defense, and
Compulsory
Social Security
0.01
-
1.12
+
-+
P. Education
Services
0.38
-
1.30
+
-+
Q. Health
Services and
Social Activities
0.50
-
0.87
-
--
R, S, T, U.
Other services
0.06
-
0.92
-
--
Source: Data Processed 2022
From Table 5, the results of the analysis of the Overlay of North Padang Lawas Regency from 2011 to
2020 can be classified into three classifications as follows:
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a. LQ (+) and RPS (+) values, this means that the sector is a leading sector in North Padang Lawas Regency,
and its contribution and growth are worth (+) or >1. These sectors are sectors (1) agriculture, animal
husbandry, and forestry; (2) processing industry; (3) construction.
b. The value of LQ (+) and RPs (-), means that the sector in terms of its contribution to North Padang Lawas
Regency is dominant, but the growth is still smaller than the growth of the same sector in North Sumatra
Province. These sectors are (1) electricity and gas procurement; and (2) real estate.
c. The value of LQ (-) and RPs (+), means that the sector's contribution in North Padang Lawas Regency is
smaller than North Sumatra Province, but the sector growth in North Padang Lawas Regency is greater
than that of North Sumatera Province. These sectors are (1) electricity and gas procurement; (2) water
supply, waste management, waste and recycling; (3) wholesale and retail trade, repair of cars and
motorcycles; (4) transportation and warehousing; (5) financial and insurance services; (6) real estate; (7)
government administration, defense and compulsory social security; (8) educational services.
d. The value of LQ (-) and RPs (-), means that in terms of contribution and growth in the condition of the
economic sector in North Padang Lawas Regency is smaller than North Sumatra Province, this sector is
not at all a leading sector and is not a sector that can develop in North Padang Lawas Regency. These
sectors are (1) mining and quarrying; (2) provision of accommodation and food and drink; (3) information
and communication; (4) health services and social activities; (5) other services.
Shift Share Analysis
Shift Share analysis is used to see the process of economic growth of North Padang Lawas Regency
associated with a higher area above it, namely North Sumatra Province. In the Shift Share analysis, the
economic growth sectors of North Padang Lawas Regency are seen from the consequences influenced by
Provincial Share (Nij), Proportional Shift Component (Mij), and Differential Share (Cij). There are two
shift components, namely Proportional Shift Component (Mij) and Differential Share (Cij) which aim to
separate the influence of growth both from within the region (internal) and from outside the area (extern).
Table 6
Analysis Shift Share North Padang Lawas Regency
Sector
Nij
Me
Cij
Dij
1. Agriculture,
Forestry, and
Fisheries
1354.91
855.747
211.621
2422.27
2. Mining and
Quarrying
8.5244
9.39918
-3.865
14.0585
3. Processing
Industry
538.03
197.408
288.758
1024.2
4. Electricity and
Gas Procurement
6.50951
4.30935
3.52113
14.34
5. Water
Procurement,
Waste
Management,
Waste and
Recycling
1.24997
0.94435
0.04787
2.24219
6. Construction
411.638
298.767
21.622
688.783
7. Wholesale and
Retail Trade;
Car and
Motorcycle
Repair
289.219
196.223
78.6634
564.106
8. Transportation
and
54.0545
26.7905
34.0674
114.912
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Warehousing
9. Provision of
Accommodation
and Food and
Drink
27.1994
17.5704
-1.533
43.2368
10. Information
and
Communication
17.324
22.6969
-4.645
35.3759
11. Financial
Services and
Insurance
18.9729
14.483
8.11146
41.5674
12. Real Estate
90.5857
79.8639
47.4805
217.93
13. Company
Services
119.842
90.1532
-40.505
169.49
14. Government
Administration,
Defense, and
Compulsory
Social Security
1.46964
0.94416
0.18379
2.59759
15. Educational
Services
21.2394
14.5429
6.84543
42.6278
16. Health
Services and
Social Activities
12.7531
14.3555
-2.9493
24.1592
17. Other
Services
0.89241
0.70264
-0.0901
1.50491
Source: Data Processed
In Shift Share analysis, the shift component consists of Proportional Shift Share (Mij) and
Differential Shift (Cij). These two components separate the elements of growth in North Padang
Lawas Regency which are from outside North Padang Lawas Regency (extern) and within North
Padang Lawas Regency (internal). According to Oppenheim (1980), Bendad-Alal (1953), Patton
(1991), Field and McGregor (1993) in Joseph (1999) entitled "Analysis of Regional Economic
Growth", proportional shift (Mij) and differential shift (Cij) components are more important than
regional share components.
Based on Table 6, it is also seen that all sectors have a positive Proportional Shift Share (Mij)
in North Padang Laws district from the quarter of 2011 to 2020, namely the agriculture, trend, and
forestry sectors (211,621)); mining and quarrying (9.39918); processing industry (197,408);
electricity, and gas (4.30935); water supply, waste management, waste and recycling (0.94435),
construction (298.767); wholesale and retail trade, car and motorcycle repair (196,223);
transportation and warehousing (26.7905); provision of food and beverage accommodation
(17.5704); information and communication (22.6969), financial services and insurance (14.483);
real estate (79.8639); corporate services (90.1532); government administration, defense, and
compulsory social security (0.94416); Education services (14.5429); health services and social
activities (14.3555); and other services (0.70264). This means that these sectors are growing fast
both in North Padang Lawas Regency and in North Sumatra Province.
The results of Differential Shift (Cij) in North Padang Lawas Regency from the quarter of
2011 to 2020 eleven sectors had positive values, namely, the agriculture, livestock and forestry
sectors (211,621); processing industry (228,758); electricity and gas procurement (3.52113); water
procurement, waste management, waste and recycling (0.04787); construction (21,622); wholesale
The Influence Of Leading Sectors On Poverty Rate In The
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and retail trade, car and motorcycle repair (78.6634); transportation and warehousing (34,0674);
financial and insurance services (8.11146); real estate (47.4805); government administration,
defense and compulsory social security (6.84543); and Education services 6.84543). This means
that these sectors are growing faster in North Padang Lawas Regency than the same sectors in North
Sumatra Province. Six sectors have a negative Differential Shift (Cij) in North Padang Lawas
Regency from the quarter of 2011 to 2020, namely the mining sector and the less potential in North
Padang Lawas Regency from 2011 to 2020. excavation (-3,865); provision of food and drink
accommodation (-1,533); information and communication (-4,645); corporate services (-40,505);
health services and social activities (-2.9493); and other services (-0.0901). The six sectors based on
the results of the Shift Share analysis have slow growth in North Padang Lawas Regency when
compared to the same sector at the North Sumatra Province level, therefore based on the results of
the Shift Share analysis, these sectors are economic sectors.
Kemiskinan di Kabupaten Padang Lawas Utara
Figure 1
Number of Poor People in North Padang Lawas Regency
Year 2010-2020
It can be seen from Figure 1 above, that the number of poor people in North Padang Lawas Regency
from 2010 to 2020 tends to fluctuate. The highest was reached in 2017 at 27,980 and the lowest occurred in
2013 at 23,720.
The Influence of the Leading Sector on the Poverty Rate in North Padang Lawas District
Y1 = -26.176 + 6.762X
1
- 0,840X
2
-0.005X
3
+ e
f (X1, X2, X3)
T-sig. = (0,002; 0,001; 0,986)
R Square = 44,5%
F-Sig. = 0,001
Overall, (simultaneously) the independent variables of the leading sector (X1, X2, and X3) have a
significant effect on the dependent variable of poverty level (Y1). Based on the above equation model, it can
be explained as follows:
1. The coefficiency in the Agriculture, Livestock and Forestry sector (X1) is 0.629
That is, if the variables of the agricultural, livestock, and forestry sectors increase by 1 unit, then the
poverty rate in northern Padang Lawas Regency will increase by 0.629 units and vice versa assuming that
the independent variable of the processing industry sector (X2) and the independent variable of the
construction sector are considered constant. The independent variables of the agriculture, livestock, and
forestry sectors (X1) have a significant influence (0.011 < 0.05).
2. The processing industry sector coefficient (X2) is 0.057
That is, if the variable of the processing industry sector increases by 1 unit, the poverty rate in North
Padang Lawas Regency will increase by 0.057 units and vice versa assuming that the independent variable
of the agriculture, livestock, and forestry sector (X1) and the independent variable of the construction
26790,00
26060,00
26820,00
27980,00
27880,00
27670,00
23860,00
25010,00
23720,00
24040,00
25000,00
2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010
Series 1
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sector (X3) are considered constant. Vaiabel independent of the processing industry sector has a
significant influence (0.000 < 0.05).
3. The coefficient of the construction sector (X3) is 0.159
That is, if the construction sector variable increases by 1 unit, the poverty rate in North Padang Lawas
Regency will increase by 0.159 units and vice versa assuming that the independent variable of the
agriculture, forestry, and livestock sector (X1) and the variable of the processing industry sector (X3) is
considered constant. Construction sector variables have no significant influence (0.625 > 0.05).
The results of the influence of independent variables in the agriculture, livestock, and forestry sectors
(X1) have a significant and positive effect. This explains that the agriculture, livestock, forestry, and
fisheries sectors are partially able to affect the poverty rate in North Padang Lawas District. This is in line
with the results of research by Koko Firmansyah (2020) that the main sub-sector of the potential sector in
Jambi Province (plantation sub-sector) has a positive and significant effect on the poverty rate in Jambi
Province.
The result of the influence of the independent variable of the processing industry sector (X2) has a
significant positive influence. This is also in line with the results of research by Amran, Vakie, and Een
(2019) the leading sectors (agricultural sector, processing industry, and construction sector) have a
significant effect on poverty in North Minahasa Regency.
The results of the influence of the construction variable (X3) had an insignificant positive influence
on the poverty rate in North Padang Lawas District. This is in line with the results of Selly Trianita's
research Oktavia Tarigan (2021), the financial sector has an insignificant negative effect on the poverty
rate in Medan City.
CONCLUSION
Based on the results of research on the influence of leading sectors on the poverty rate in North Padang
Lawas Regency, several conclusions can be drawn, namely, the unclean sectors in North Padang Lawas
Regency are: (1) agriculture, livestock, and forestry sectors; (2) processing industry; and (3) construction
sector Simultaneously agriculture, livestock, and forestry sector (1); processing industry sector (2);
construction sector (3); has a significant effect on the poverty rate in North Padang Lawas Regency. Partially,
the agriculture, livestock, and forestry sectors have a positive and significant effect on the poverty rate. The
processing industry sector has a positive and significant effect on the poverty rate. Partially, the construction
sector has a positive and insignificant effect on the poverty rate.
The leading sector in North Padang Lawas Regency must be considered again to help reduce the
poverty rate in North Padang Lawas Regency by increasing the productivity of the leading sector in North
Padang Lawas Regency. It should also be noted the allocation of production factors so that each sector can
produce maximum production results where the production results will affect the per capita income of the
community which will increase the ability of people's purchasing power and ultimately be able to reduce the
poverty rate in North Padang Lawas Regency.
For further research, to go deeper, you can try using other indicators and other ways to find out the
leading sectors in North Padang Lawas Regency and find out the relationship and influence of leading sectors
on poverty rates in North Padang Lawas Regency because the leading sectors are expected to be able to
overcome these two problems.
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