The Effect of the Global Supply Chain Crisis on the Price of Local Agricultural Products in Indonesia: Business Continuity Strategies for MSME Actors

Abstract

Global supply chain crises due to war, pandemics, climate change, and exchange rate fluctuations have put great pressure on food price stability in developing countries, including Indonesia. This impact not only increases the price of local agricultural products, but also suppresses the sustainability of micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs) which are the backbone of the national food economy. This study aims to analyze the influence of the global supply chain crisis on the price of local agricultural products in Indonesia, identify the main transmission channels, and formulate  a business continuity plan (BCP) strategy that is applicable to agricultural MSMEs. The research uses  a mixed-method approach  through quantitative data analysis of food commodity prices for the 2022–2024 period, combined with semi-structured interviews and questionnaires to 20 agricultural MSMEs in West Java, Central Java, and South Sulawesi. Data were analyzed by descriptive-statistical techniques and qualitative thematic analysis. The findings show an increase in domestic rice prices of more than 16% and logistics costs increased by 30% during the study period. Most MSMEs (72%) report increased input costs, while key adaptation strategies include supplier diversification, spare stock, and digital adoption. MSMEs that implement a dual strategy are able to reduce the risk of supply disruptions by up to 30% compared to those that do not adapt. This research contributes to strengthening the literature on food supply chain resilience as well as providing practical recommendations for MSMEs and the basis for public policies that are more in favor of price stability and community food security.